A Third World Order

What if Uncle Sam and the Dragon Throne weren't the only games in town? That elusive prize of dictating the 21st Century Order, might fall to unlikely candidates if both principles aren't careful...

All eyes are converging on Taiwan in 2026. In the year of Vermillion Horse and Blood Lamb, both Zhongnanhai and DC are placing their chess pieces, strategically rattling sabres and slotting an ungodly volume of dark assets in the digital realm. Everything and anything is being weaponized, economics, supply chains, payment systems, entertainment apps and even tourism.

This is the culmination of eighty years of skullduggery, stretching from the end of the Pacific War in 1945 to the present Trump era. American strategic goals have vacilliated from anti Communism, to terror suppression, to imperial over stretch and now locking down the First Island Chain at all costs.

The sheer size, strategic importance and technological sophistication of East Asia, make this a show stopper conflict. More akin to losing France in 1940 or the formation of a unified Germany in 1871. Both sides are spectacularly wealthy, and have the means to take down the entire Indo-Pacific if necessary

But the so called Middle Powers; India, Vietnam, the Korea, Tokyo, Canberra, Brasilia, Ankara and a Berlin etc. Are not content to simply allow a global conflagration to incinerate their technical progress and industrial growth.

Seoul has quietly become the world's foremost small arms, light artillery and automated defence system exporter. Channeling heavy industry expertise in the nuclear sector to the UAE and Turkiye. While the Turks have proven that their KAAN aeronautical framework and drones, are an effective alternative to DJI or Raytheon.

Tokyo has refused to confiscate Russian assets and a bonfire in the middle of the Taiwan Straits would be catastrophic but not apocalyptic. The Kuril Island dispute and its attendant fossil fuel bonanza beneath the waves, can all be quietly resolved as war rages. While it would be the perfect opportunity to launch the Arctic Sea Lanes for international commerce. Ontario has been very quiet on this and its recent declarations of agency against Trump’s insanity, means that it would be eager to project mercantile independence beyond DC’s latest obsession against Chinese power.

The difference this time compared to Bandung 1955, is the global profusion of technocratic growth, comprehensive understanding of market mechanisms and a “Realist” understanding that the only people who benefit from a Taipei centric geopolitical bonfire, would be the finance houses facilitating the post war reconstruction.

Beijing’s BRI has been a success only because it buys into utilitarian benefits for regional Conservative elites, seeking markets, factories and independence from the USD. And this ruthless pragmatism extends to a cold calculation of whether any Sino American fallout would scorch hard-won progress in regional growth.

Of all the Asian megatstates, Jakarta is the only one with immense geostrategic reserves, potential market share and economic heft, to command equidistant neutrality from both parties. Which is why China has been so eagerly courting Indonesian goodwill in the last 15 years.

If all out conflict occurs, financial weaponization and economic warfare will be immediate. There will be a frantic last minute rush for safe havens. This is the golden opportunity for opportunists to play Go when the warbros are fiddling their chess pieces.

I wouldn't preclude a black Swan event when New Delhi, Tehran, Bahrain and Riyadh gang up to launch a digital currency swap/Safe Harbour initiative. Such an event ensures the crude and LNG keep flowing, while giving Putin a third way out for external market access. It would also set the stage for Iran’s uncontested re-emergence from economic exile. A form of turbo charged Islamic Digital Stablecoin finance, could theoretically shadow the Digital Yuan and USD, while giving better terms to Jakarta and Malaysia.

If history is any indication, a runaway strategic conflict that leads to geopolitical seachanges, always create unexpected winners. Mexico, Venezuela, Argentina and Brazil all have the incentive to loosen the Monroe Doctrine as long as the US is obsessed with controlling the Pacific.

I won't put it past the Central Asian behemoths of Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan to directly engage with New Delhi, Brussels and Tehran, while extending feelers to Tokyo and Seoul. The Chinese have no intention of recreating any evangelical global model of Sinicized governance, akin to what the US does. But by extension, it cannot freeze any butterfly effects from an all out war in Taiwan.

What could very well emerge, is a global chain of these Middle powers, attaining sufficient bargaining power to innovate a third way: forcing Beijing and Uncle Sam to provide a range of enticing governance tools and financial systems, to benefit the formers interests.

We are returning to the High Mercantile Age of the 16rh-17th Century, its a third world order.